Full NNFX Backtests Across 8 Pairs and 5 Years
Moving Average Delta as a C1 Indicator in the NNFX System
As a part of the NNFX indicator series, I have the pleasure to present you today the Moving Average Delta. I tested it as a confirmation 1 indicator with the same methodology offered since the beginning of the series. That indicator can boast profits of $1451,60$ and a win rate over 51% after 5 years and over 214 trades.
As previously mentioned, in the trading business, the first achievement to reach is not to lose money and this indicator proves to be a valuable asset by doing just that. This indicator is a classic zero line cross and from the number of trades performed, it is on the slow side. It most probably have some good potential especially as a C2 indicator.
Here is how it looks like:
Testing Setup
- Strategy Base: No Nonsense Forex (NNFX) Daily Chart Algorithm with default volume, baseline and exit indicators
- Role: Confirmation 1 (C1)
- Pairs Tested: AUDCAD, AUDNZD, CHFJPY, EURGBP, EURUSD, GBPJPY, USDCAD, USDSGD
- Period: January 1st 2020 – December 31st 2024
- Risk Management: 2% risk per trade split in two positions
- Stop Loss/Trail Settings: Based on ATR multipliers
All backtests used the Moving Average Delta with a 20-period setting and ADX Period 14 with a threshold of 25 and the Heiken Ashi crossing signal as an exit indicator. Trade entries followed strict NNFX confirmation logic with no discretionary overrides.
Key Metrics Summary
| Pair | Net Profit | Win Rate | Profit Factor | Avg Win | Avg Loss | Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUDCAD | $105.25 | 53.33% | 1.41 | $54.85 | -$56.35 | 4.24% |
| AUDNZD | $348.55 | 61.11% | 1.90 | $67.08 | -$55.61 | 3.38% |
| CHFJPY | $199.63 | 50.00% | 1.70 | $74.59 | -$51.82 | 3.26% |
| EURGBP | $276.80 | 54.17% | 1.88 | $65.77 | -$51.90 | 2.61% |
| EURUSD | $303.32 | 59.09% | 1.59 | $62.78 | -$56.97 | 4.14% |
| GBPJPY | -$111.40 | 50.00% | 0.81 | $33.20 | -$41.16 | 5.15% |
| USDCAD | -$232.42 | 44.44% | 0.62 | $47.61 | -$61.33 | 6.00% |
| USDSGD | $816.39 | 54.17% | 2.63 | $101.24 | -$45.43 | 4.32% |
Insights & Commentary
- Total Profit: $1,451.12 across all pairs.
- Winning Pairs: 6 out of 8 pairs were profitable.
- Win Rate: Over 51% average across the board. This is a good win rate even if you would consider a payoff ratio of 1.00.
- Payoff Ratio: The average reward-to-risk ratio exceeded 1.2 on average. This means that winning trades are bigger then losing trades. Combine this to a win rate over 50% is where it gains it’s statistical edge.
- Drawdowns: The maximal drawdowns are kept under 6% across all these pairs. I cannot stress enough that this is key to a successful trading strategy. Whether you are planning to trade for a prop firm or with your own money.
Optimization
This is a phenomenal indicator to start an algorithm with. Keep these things in mind:
- It would benefit greatly of a second confirmation indicator to refine the entries.
- The accessory indicators, volume, baseline and exit, are sub-par and so the whole strategy would benefit from picking indicators that outperforms these.
Essentials Of Trading
If you are building your foundation as a trader, this kind of content comes in handy when your framework is already structured.
In my Essentials Of Trading course, I am offering a solid base and foundation to start a successful trading career. You can start Here:
Final Thoughts
The verdict is clear, this is a fantastic indicator to build a profitable trading strategy. The Moving Average Delta is a serious contender for a spot as a NNFX building block. I personally like it as I find that zero line cross indicators often underperform in comparison to chart or two line cross types. Once a system shall be polished using this indicator, it can really shine.
Remember that you are looking for a statistical advantage and a repeatability over time. A critical point of a good system is the synergy from all your indicators combined together. Also note that this number of trades is the minimum I would consider to be a viable sample size. If you end up with a number lower then 200 on the total trades, you should seek to expand your sample to reach that number so you know your results can be taken seriously.
